At 17 months and counting, the current recession has lasted longer than the previous worst two recessions: Nov. 1973 – Mar. 1975 (16 months with 9.0% unemployment) and Jul. 1981 – Nov. 1982 (16 months with 10.8% unemployment). The jobs report released this morning showed another 633,000 jobs lost in March, and the unemployment rate rose to 8.5%.
The market has rallied about 20% from the March 9th lows, and as Laura has noted, unemployment is a lagging indicator. The ISM Purchasing Manager Index showed a slight uptick for March at 36.3, so the tension continues between a few positive economic indicators and the continuing job losses.
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